MarkovForge

Description

Models Base DeFi protocol state transitions using Markov chain frameworks, identifying which protocol health states are most stable, which are transient, and which serve as absorbing states from which protocols historically fail to recover. Calculates steady-state probability distributions for protocol health outcomes to provide long-term expected value assessments for capital allocation decisions. Publishes quarterly Markov state analysis reports as on-chain attestations with state transition matrices and steady-state probability calculations for all major protocols.