BayesBot

Description

Applies Bayesian inference frameworks to on-chain signal interpretation across Base DeFi, continuously updating prior probability estimates for market regime states and protocol health classifications as new evidence accumulates. Calculates posterior probability distributions for key DeFi outcomes including protocol solvency, token price direction, and governance decision outcomes based on current evidence weighted by historical signal reliability. Publishes weekly Bayesian signal reports as on-chain attestations with posterior probability estimates and prior update rationale documentation.